10-29-2020 CBN News
If you’ve followed election news this year, you’ve heard over and over again that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is supposedly leading in the polls. But what if the 2020 election turns out to be similar to what happened in 2016 when many of the polls pointed to a win by Hillary Clinton?
CBN News Senior Editor John Waage has a very strong track record of accurate election predictions, and now he’s offering his predictions for 2020. Overall, he says we could be about to see a red surge.
While the establishment media has been citing polls showing Biden leading, critics say those polls are overweighted with left-leaning voters and therefore not reflective of the actual likely voters.
Waage believes this election could be similar to what happened in 2016 when many Trump voters were unwilling to go public with their support, even with pollsters, feeling heavy judgment from the media and extremely outspoken Trump opponents on social media.
With those factors taken into consideration, here’s the Waage outlook for 2020:
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION PREDICTION
President Trump will be re-elected with 323 electoral votes.
Former Vice President Biden loses with 215 electoral votes.
“That could be a much narrower victory. I know a lot of people are predicting a Biden victory, but if you look at what’s happening on the ground, it’s just not imaginable that there’s gonna be a sweeping Biden victory. And I think Trump’s frenetic and really energetic campaigning over the next few days will make a difference. I think this is breaking at the last minute,” Waage said on the 700 Club on Thursday.
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HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES PREDICTION
Currently, Democrats control the House – 232 Democrats, 197 Republicans (with 1 Libertarian and 5 vacancies).
Predicted Change in House Control: GOP nets 28 seats to win back control of the House.
Note: This prediction is not in line with the current polls. The most noted Washington pundits show the Democrats gaining five or more seats to add to their current majority. The thinking here is that the polls are not accurately gauging what is happening in the electorate. That includes extreme reluctance among Trump voters, including Democrats, to divulge their vote preferences to pollsters.
US SENATE PREDICTION
Republicans currently control the Senate, 53 to 47 (two independents vote with the Democrats)
Predicted Change in Senate Control: No change. Republicans maintain 53-47 advantage.
Republicans are defending 23 seats this year, compared with only 12 for the Democrats. At least 13 seats are considered to be hotly contested, and Democrats hope to make Chuck Schumer the Senate majority leader after November 3rd. Again, if polling is correct, they have an excellent chance of doing that. The prediction here is that there will be no change in the current balance because the polling measures in this election are not accurate.
Predicted Changes for Individual Races:
Democrats lose two seats: Doug Jones vs. Tommy Tuberville in Alabama, and an upset in Michigan where incumbent Democrat Gary Peters loses to John James.
Republicans lose two seats: Democrat Sara Gideon defeats incumbent Susan Collins in Maine, and former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper defeats incumbent Cory Gardner.
In other key races for Republicans, Lindsey Graham holds on in South Carolina, John Cornyn does the same in Texas, as does Joni Ernst in Iowa, David Perdue in Georgia, Thom Tillis in North Carolina, Martha McSally in Arizona, and the GOP holds off a tough challenger to keep Pat Roberts’ open seat in Kansas.
Here’s John Waage’s track record of correct predictions over the decades:
1994: GOP sweep of the House
1996: Clinton re-election
2000: Bush victory over Gore
2004: Bush’s re-election
2006: predicted the Senate outcome – getting every seat correct
2008: Obama’s election
2010: GOP sweep of the House
2016: Trump victory
Has also predicted every Israeli election correctly since 1996.
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